Date: 07/11/2016

This file describes data and computation programs for Manuscript number RED-15-111R1

ÒBaby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models" by Larry E. Jones and Alice Schoonbroodt

Editor in charge: Matthias Doepke

All programs run on Mac OSX Yosemite.
Software needed: Matlab R2016a or R2014a (if regressions are included, step 1.b and 3), Dynare 4.4.3 (including  Dynare++)
(Note that the programs using Dynare++ will not run on Mac OSX El Capitan until Dynare has upgraded)

Items 1.a, 1.b, 2.a and 2.b.i, ii, iii should be run in this order.
Item 3 is independent of everything else.

1. U.S. Data

a. NIPA

	Software: Matlab

	Folder: NipaEllenUpdated

	This folder contains an update to Ellen R. McGrattanÕs work on NIPA data in V. V. Chari & Patrick J. 	Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 	75(3), pages 781-836, 05.

	The original data work is available at http://users.cla.umn.edu/~erm/data/sr328/

	README_Update_Alice.doc provides details on this update.

	Program to run: usdata.m

	Creates:

      TFPEllen.txt
      LPEllen.txt

b. Run regressions and generate input data for simulations

	Software: Matlab R2014a (regressions commands don't work in R2016a)

	Folder: DataStatsComp

	Program to run: datastatscomp.m

		Uses:
			TFPEllen.txt
			LPEllen.txt
			TFRNCHS.txt   (NCHS Natality Statistics) 
			TFRHaines.txt (Haines 1994)
			CEBJT.txt (Jones and Tertilt 2008)
			hpfilter.m
			penta2.m

		Creates/computes:
			Regression coefficients for Table 1
			Figures 1, 2, 3
			TFPdev2030.txt
			TFPdev2040.txt
			


2. Numerical Results

a. Baseline

	Software: Matlab, Dynare with Dynare++

	Folder: baseline

	Program to run: dynare_baseline.m

		Outline:

			1. Load and prepare TFP, TFR and Bequest Data
			2. Set parameter values and initial guess
			3. Prepare the dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod file
			4. Running Dynare++ for Calibration and Euper Equation Errors (lines 388-468)
			5. Simulation: Elasticities and Time Series
			6. Plot Results


		Uses 
			hpfilter.m
			penta2.m
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_begin.mod
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_end.mod
			TFPdev2030.txt

		Creates/Reports
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod (complete dynare code)
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mat (numerical solution matrix)
			Figures for Euler Equation Errors (uncomment lines 388-467)
			Elasticities for Table 3
			Figures 5, 6, and 7 (with 4 sub-figures)
				
		Runtime with ioder = 6 (line 198): about 150 seconds (300 seconds with Euler Equation Errors)
			(Note: For all practical purposes, iorder = 4 generates the same reported results, runs much faster but gives larger Euler 			Equation errors.)

b. Sensitivity

i. Online Appendix O.3.1

	Software: Matlab, Dynare with Dynare++

	Folder: sensitivity/O31

	Program to run: dynareO31_2040.m

		Outline:

			1. Load and prepare TFP, TFR and Bequest Data
			2. Set parameter values and initial guess
			3. Prepare the dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod file
			4. Running Dynare++ for Calibration 
			5. Simulation: Elasticities and Time Series
			6. Plot Results


		Uses 
			hpfilter.m
			penta2.m
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_begin.mod
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_end.mod
			TFPdev2040.txt

		Creates/Reports
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod (complete dynare code)
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mat (numerical solution matrix)
			Figure O.1
				
		Runtime with ioder = 6 (line 204): about 150 seconds 

ii. Online Appendix O.3.2

	Software: Matlab, Dynare with Dynare++

	Folder: sensitivity/O32

	Program to run: dynareO32_T30.m

		Outline:

			1. Load and prepare TFP, TFR and Bequest Data
			2. Set parameter values and initial guess
			3. Prepare the dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod file
			4. Running Dynare++ for Calibration 
			5. Simulation: Elasticities and Time Series
			6. Plot Results


		Uses 
			hpfilter.m
			penta2.m
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_begin.mod
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_end.mod
			TFPdev2030.txt

		Creates/Reports
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod (complete dynare code)
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mat (numerical solution matrix)
			Figure O.2
				
		Runtime with ioder = 6 (line 204): about 150 seconds 

iii. Online Appendix O.3.3

	Software: Matlab, Dynare with Dynare++

	Folder: sensitivity/O33

	Program to run: dynareO33_sigma05.m

		Outline:

			1. Load and prepare TFP, TFR and Bequest Data
			2. Set parameter values and initial guess
			3. Prepare the dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod file
			4. Running Dynare++ for Calibration 
			5. Simulation: Elasticities and Time Series
			6. Plot Results


		Uses 
			hpfilter.m
			penta2.m
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_begin.mod
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_end.mod
			TFPdev2030.txt

		Creates/Reports
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mod (complete dynare code)
			dyn2PWL_KHgt_dr_total.mat (numerical solution matrix)
			Figure O.3
				
		Runtime with ioder = 6 (line 204): about 150 seconds 



3. International Evidence

	Software: Matlab R2014a (regressions commands don't work in R2016a)

	Folder: InternationalEvidence

	Program to run: international.m

		Uses:
			CBRinternat.txt
			GDPinternat.txt

		Creates:
			RegressionsBust.txt for Table 5
			RegressionsBoom.txt for Table 6